Social Media Intelligence versus the War on Lone Wolf Terror
In a post 9-11 world, the war of terror rages on, billions of dollars are being spent to defend and destroy those that would cause harm to US citizens, her allies, and interests. In recent years, it seems the threat that may cause the greatest harm to our security is not longer Al Qaeda, but potentially those that already reside within our borders. These individuals may have succumbed to foreign propaganda or environmental pressures which inspire them to turn against their fellow citizens in an outward violent act. Unlike an attack by Al Qaeda, a lone wolf or wolves are near impossible to detect by traditional intelligence networks and local law enforcement. Moreover, the lone wolf terrorists that are already domiciled within the borders of the United States have ready access to lethal materials and high population centers. Yet, in a world highly connected via social media, mobile communications, and the internet, could social media be used to sniff out potential terrorists threats? Personally, I believe it could.
As US Citizens, we need to think on a much more localized level, while simultaneously monitoring global conditions. The challenge for law enforcement is that Lone Wolf terrorists may be inspired by global events without actually being directly connected to a specific terror organization or watched intelligence network. In a statement by former FBI Agent Jack Cloonan, “We don't know what a lone wolf; al Qaeda-inspired operative looks like. We don't know where they hang out; we don't know really what motivates them. So when you don't know that, you've got a talent pool of people that is so huge, it stresses law enforcement. We just don't know what they look like and what they want to do."
Here inlays the problem. The US government currently looks at social media intelligence in the same contextual fashion as a Google search. Most recent example is its 2010 contract with Visible Technologies via the CIA technology investment fund, whereas Visible crawls over 500,000 social content sites twice a day, and scores the poster sentiment (positive, negative, neutral) against a predefined contextual document. If the poster has a degree of influence or social following, then they may end up on a watch list by one or more government agencies. This is the same type of technology that many companies use to measure their brand reputation. Where this technology fall short is it sorts more on contextual relevance than actual meaning. Moreover, influence over others means very little if you are a lone wolf.
A better platform would be one that uses contextual search like visible in association with semantic search and scoring. Whereas, the process of semantic search seeks to improve search accuracy by understanding searcher intent and the contextual meaning of terms as they appear in the searchable data space, whether on the Web or within a closed system, which generates more relevant results. Example: Tom Cruise, being the bomb, would not be confused with a man named Tom looking to detonate an explosive device on a cruise. More importantly, this tool should be available to both local and federal law enforcement agencies. Given that if local law enforcement is reporting suspicious activities IE acts of trespassing at city water reserves, and there seems to be a repetitive actions happening in other cities within a given time period then there may be cause for a deeper federal investigation. If this was compounded by lone wolf or wolves social media chatter on “Let’s poison the water supply”, using action words and phrases showing a repetitive intent to comment such and act then the treat matrix would be elevated to mobilize against such a threat while in the planning stages.
How would one build such a system? I spent a lot of time on this issue, given that I have designed several social analytics and engagement tools in the past. Simplistically speaking it would require the following steps.
1)Access to large data pipes of RSS feeds with specialized crawlers designed to target specific sites of interest. Include video and media feeds as well.
2)Create model documents of potential terrorist scenarios
4)Build information capture sites that use the model documents as a guide to search engine optimize a lone wolf into accessing “How to build bad things that hurt people” downloads.
5)Run the search algorithm to find specific “suspects” of interest per potential terrorist scenario.
6)Use an automated reverse lookup or trace route (if possible) to determine origin and potentially identity of user.
7)If user is anonymous, then auto engage the user, using a social bot, or automated response program that uses in part the suspect’s subject matter in conjunction with a preformatted action text in hopes to gain more intelligence on the user to establish true intent, by posing as a like minded individual. Engagement tactic may be to send them to the capture site, capture their IP address, time on site, downloads, to help establish potential threat.
8)Compare data gained in suspect search algorithm with that gained from the capture site.
9)Find affiliated accounts, handles, or suspect’s network of friends via communication threads or social media friends and begin to semantically monitor conversations.
10)Monitor and turn potential treats over to local, federal, or national law enforcement based upon treat analysis.
11)Threats that became creditable would be tagged in the system to better target future threats. The end result would be a fairly accurate profile per threat scenario.
Outside of Al Qaeda terrorists, this type of technology would have a great practical application in local law enforcement in regards to:
1)Potential sex offenders / human traffickers
2)Pre-planned. mass violence – such as the 2007 Virginia Tech Shooting leaving 33 dead
3)Drug trafficking
4)Organized crime
I would love to hear your thoughts. Please comment and share. If anyone knows someone in government that would want to build such a system, I would be happy to have that discussion in depth, so please contact me.
How should retailers react to the Socially Comparison and Savings Apps?!
High unemployment, higher fuel costs, drops in credit, tumbling home prices, job market insecurity are amongst the several economic factors has translated into less than stellar sales for most retailers as they enter into their third quarter. Now retailers have a new “friendenemy” in the realms of consumer intelligence, “Social Savings Applications”, which could help consumers save billions of dollars in aggregate. But is consumer savings a good thing for retailers? Moreover, how should retailers respond to social and mobile coupons?
Though less than 5% of consumers use social and mobile shopping applications to compare small ticket items, as opposed to 30%+ that utilize internet search to price big ticket items, retailers must be made aware that this small percentage has a very high influence within their localized social communities. As an example, Margret, a stay at home mom, communicates daily with other moms within her community. Unlike the average social sphere butterfly having 50-75 social connections that updates their social statues 1-2 times a week, Margret has 135 friends, all active, and socially posts 1-4 times daily. Moreover, her social community has approximately the same following, activity, and shopping habits. So in when Margret shares here shopping experience, she is sharing with her 135 friends times 134 friends of friends, equating to 18,000 socially conscience shoppers. So in essence, a 5% usage, could essentially equate to a 20%+ net brand effect in consumer spending on a localized level.
Outside of the socially conscience, hardcore saver, there are folks like myself that are connivance shoppers. We are in the right place, at the right time, and if I can find a good deal somewhere, I will most likely be back again. A quick and dirty example of such a retail outing, I went to Kmart yesterday, not because I am an avid Kmart shopper, but moreover, I ran out of my favorite workout nutraceutical, Whey Protein, and happened to be passing a Kmart. First of all, as a guy I am genetically wired to ignore most coupons and if I want something, I have an innate need to satisfy my cravings. So I journeyed to Kmart to quench my craving. I found my item, though it seemed a little pricey at $27.99.
I’m not one to round pennies, but I don’t want to fell I am getting a bad deal either. So, I pulled out my phone and scanned the bar code using a price comparison application called “Shop Savvy”, though there are literally hundreds of these apps currently online. What I discovered is that Kmart was about 60% more expensive than approximately 15 other local retailers.
Ok, I was a little miffed, but I figured Kmart’s customer service would match the price, right?! To my dismay customer service could do absolutely nothing, and in the words of Kmart’s customer service manager, “I wish I could do something, but management doesn’t listen to us, it’s out of my hands, the price is the price.” Yet, to my surprise, she then picked up her phone and texted her gym friend and asked where she found the best deals for the brand of protein that I desired to purchase”. In a matter of seconds a response came back that was even cheaper than what I found using my social app, though my shopping app did set the bar for savings.
The end result, I saved 75% off of Kmart’s price. I got my Whey Protein; I scanned the bar code and updated the price so other local shoppers can find the same great deal I did.
The lesson for retailers everywhere:
1) Know what you consumers want. Know the hot items per category.
2) LISTEN to the social sphere, what are people saying about your brand and engage both good and bad experiences. Especially do this prior to bad experiences gain a social following. I’ll write a few posts on social listing and engagement next week.
3) If you don’t have the items and your competitor does, either get the items, or know who does so you can refer your customer. It’s not the ideal scenario, but it does show that you are karmatically working in their best interests.
4) Price your competition’s popular products or services items weekly. You don’t need to always have the best price, just a comparable one.
5) Don’t cut costs in customer service or sales support. Nothing makes me want to shop the competition more than a bad experience.
6) Update social shopping applications with the items and prices that are best or most comparable in the market place. Influencer shoppers like Margret will bring her friends and friends or friends.
In conclusion, immersion in social savings applications early could grow your brand and consumer loyalty quickly. Just as many retailers ignored the internet and social media in the beginning, social savings applications as the former are here to stay. Retailers that ignore social shopping apps do so at their demise.
If you want more information on how you can socially engage your customers via couponing, shopping loyalty programs, and social media, feel free to contact me.
Adreka will be socially selecting the biggest winners and losers in the political landscape prior to the votes being tallied. Results will be streamed live from the top of Atlanta at the City Club – Atlanta's Premiere Business Club at 7am.
Can Social Listening Make Consumer Behavior Predictive?
Over the past few years, I have been using a hodgepodge of analytic tools in to monitor, engage, and in some cases change the course of consumer behavior through a variety of engagement strategies. Given that my first few ventures included running a few thousand dating, gaming sites, and entertainment websites, I thought that among my peers what I was doing was common place. I was recently invited to speak at Goizueta Business, Emory University’s MBA program, and had the unique opportunity to interact with both business leaders and the brands that they represented. As part of my introduction, Dr. Benn Konsynski (former Yahoo and Netscape adviser), played the following video, which was more of an eduction my me than the attendees for my presentation.
In the above video, IBM is using data grouping and analysis in real time to make better decisions.
In my experience real time data is a small part of a much larger picture. Yet, what if you could process real time data of not only current events, but project forward that data into a fairly accurate forecast. Now let's take this one step further, if you understand the yin and yang, the cause and effect that relates to changing behavior patterns, and you selectively engaged those which influence the mass opinion, could you change the attitudes, behaviors, and perception of those which influence others?If you captured the sentiment of those socially influencing others, would you actually cause a ripple effect in which human behavior of those following be altered to a probable outcome? My name is John Cataldi, and I am an entrepreneur.
Post mortem of “dot com bomb”, I raised almost $1,000,000 using Social Media With a staff of 2, we spent our days and nights on bulletin boards, dating sites, directories, and even ICQ (old school chat). The end result, we received investment dollars as close as Atlanta and as far away as the Netherlands. It was an experience that I will never forget, and will hopefully attempt to repeat, just not in my living room, and at a larger dollar amount.
Being a little older now, and a veteran within the social space, with over 16 years of internet media, with 6 of those years engaged in social media, I have a new vision, revenues, and an operating organization that I plan to take to the next level. Moreover, the archaic nature of yesteryear’s socialscape has greatly changed, as have the proliferation of more affluent users and ways to communicate. With that said I just completed my private placement (legal documentation to raise capital), filed my corporate taxes, and I am about to charge to the world of angel capital.
The project will perfect the art of automated social listening, consumer individualistic engagement, and social mobilization, on an unprecedented scale.
The practical applications such a technology are endless from putting butts in seats at a baseball game, generating political activism, real time polling, and even fund raising.
Considering that my corporate strategy involves the identification, create engagement, and socially mobilize consumers, targeting angel investors should be easy.. or at least I will keep telling myself that until I believe it to be true… LOL.
I will add a social funding widget to my blog, so you and I can keep track of my progress over the next 90 days. So raising a few million dollars in angel capital, doubling last years revenues, and doing it on a shoe string budget… yea, it sounds like an idea that could only come together on a Friday as I stare into the devilish eyes of Q4.
I was experimenting with twitter’s tweet to mobile platform, and what started out as a great user experience, quickly turned into a reenactment of Laurel and Hardy famous 1927, Who’s on First. Like ICQ, Apple, Friendster, YouTube, and even Google, started with a simple user experience and heavy beta testing prior to releasing their “non-beta” version of their products.
In a world so socially connected, incredibly impatient, and highly competitive, there is rarely a second change for those that perform poorly of a better alternative. Luckily for twitter, very few companies are in the position to compete well, with the exception of the notables in the social space, Facebook, Google Buzz, etc.
So, this was my great Tweet to Short Message Service (SMS) experience…..
Me (John Cataldi): I texted “JohnCataldi to 40404”
Twitter: Johncataldi Welcome to Twitter! Reply with SIGNUP to begin. Already on Twitter? Reply with your USERNAME. (Std msg rates apply. Reply with HELP for more)
Me: SignUp
Twitter: Great! You just need a username. This is how you’ll be known on Twitter. Reply w/ the username you want to use. (max 15 characters, no spaces, like Tweetie113)
Me: Johncataldi
Twitter: Johncataldi is taken ( Is it yours? Reply w/ ITS MINE How about Johncataldi1? Reply w/ YES if that works, or a different username you want to use.
Me: It’s mine
(This is where my personal Twitter/ SMS train wreck was about to begin…. my Iphone, Iscrewed the text by auto correcting the spelling, and added the ‘s to “it’s”, instead if “Its”)
Twitter: It’s mine is taken ( Is it yours? Reply w/ ITS MINE How about Mine327? Reply w/ YES if that works, or a different username you want to use.
Twitter: Hi, @Mine. Reply w/ your password to register this phone to your Twitter account. (Password is case sensitive! Phone may capitalize the 1st letter)
Me: Ahhhhhhhh no
Twitter: Oops! That password is not correct, try again. Reply w/ your password. Forgot your password? Go to twitter.com to recover it.
Me: No not mine… JohnCataldi
Twitter: Oops! That password is not correct, try again. Reply w/ your password. Forgot your password? Go to twitter.com to recover it.
Me: JohnCataldi
Twitter: Oops! That password is not correct, try again. Reply w/ your password. Forgot your password? Go to twitter.com to recover it.
Me: JohnCataldi
Me: JohnCataldi
Twitter: (And then the Twitter Whale Grew Silent, never to txt me again)
In a perfect world the application would have worked flawlessly! However in my world, I am guilty of texting while driving, during on a conference, with sticky thumbs from my latte, in the midst of changing lanes, and pondering if I can reach my notebook in the back seat. So I am sure, a tiny bit of the error may have been with me….. BUT, “The Twitter”… LOL, should have given me a reset button… a newbie mobile mistake… which bring me to John’s 10 rules of mobile development.
John’s 10 Rules for Mobile Marketing and Application Development
1) Most phone platforms have specific testing tools included in the (System Developer’s Kits), which makes it easy to install, run, and TEST your applications.
2) Always test your application on top carriers and mobile platforms. Does that mean you have to go out and by a crap ton of phones on multiple carriers, No! You can use mobile emulators to get you 99% of the way there, though I would highly suggest heavy beta testing using the android, iphone, and blackberry devices. The auto text correcting MAY cause a large % or your users to curse your name, but this would have been missed by an emulator.
3) AVOID ANY SYSTEM RESPONSES THAT IS MORE THAN ONE WORD <<<OR>>> THAT TRIGGERS MY FREAKEN AUTO-SPELLER TO ADD IN AN APOSTROPHE!
4) Never go over 160 characters, at least not in 2010. First, if you have more to say, use the phone…. Hmmm, I don’t know…AS A PHONE! Secondly, some phones can do extended text but this is achieved by stringing 3 normal messages together giving you a total of 480 charcters, what you may not know is that the recipients carrier (your customer) and your mobile gateway (your mobile service provider) will charge both of you as if they were 3 messages, which is good for AT&T, bad for anyone not on a unlimited texting plan. Moreover, If you push your client over their mobile limit, your customer could be charges $0.20 per text message, which may not seem like much… but it adds up quick.
5) Everyone needs a “GET OUT OF APPLICATION HELL CARD”, so as part of the system auto-response, I would have said…
Twitter: Oops! That password not correct, try again. Reply w/your password. Forgot your password? Go to twitter.com to recover it. Reply w/RESTART to restart the session”
As exampled above, we are still at the standard SMS is 160 characters, and it gives your consumer the coveted out.
6) Don’t do MMS (multimedia messages), as a mass marketing tool, at least not yet. Yes, MMS is cute, and I love getting them… ok, not really, but I love sending them by the tens of thousands, so no MMS’s please, but unlike SMS, there is no standard for MMS cross carrier, which means that a majority of your MMS messages may not be delivered, cut off, distorted, or sent to the user as a downloadable link. This means if they do not have a smart phone, with web browsing capabilities, they may have to wait until they get home to download via the carrier’s website. But if you’re set on MMSing the masses, do it by carrier, and in this case, purchase a phone from each carrier for testing.
7) Always make it EASY to opt-out of the database. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION KGB.com, once I opt-out of your database your dead to me, there is no reason to be a clingy, creepy, text stalking, ex-girl friend.
8 ) NEVER, EVER SELL YOUR DATABASE! I don’t care what your terms of conditions say, your consumer will always agree with them, because they NEVER read them. Anyway with that said, the mobile phone is sacred, if you upset your consumer and they find out it’s you, it does not take a rocket scientist to know regardless if your legally right, you’re going to kill your brand name and most likely your revenues from your consumer base virally spreading your bad reputation via their mobile device. Moreover, it’s going to harm those that do mobile marketing illegitimately.
9) Have at least 5 people read your test message before you send it out. Depending on age, gender, and a few other factors, your message could get a giggle at your expense.
“OMG, M8 u 1, a drwing 2mro 4, 4 tix 2 Ldy Gaga, b 10th 2 call…..”
Did someone go to the wiki SMS short code directory and attempt to text SMSease? The scary thing is that this message was actually sent to over 3,500 listeners!
10) Lastly, less is more. There is no need to text your customer base 3x a day, not only will they get upset, but your message loses its effectiveness and sincerity.
There are many other things that can be done to grow your mobile database exponentially, but we’ll leave that for another day. If you liked the article, please feel free to comment, use, and share the knowledge.
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